Burn It Down Calculator

How much can you actually spend in retirement?

The 4% Rule was built for someone else’s risk profile. See what conventional advice says you can spend, what your real, inflation-adjusted retirement will cost, and — if you want it — how much you could spend and still choose your own odds of dying with zero.

Built-in assumptions — read before you enter numbers

Federal tax only — no state income tax modeled
Pension and VA disability are both optional — enable only what applies to you
Social Security is not modeled — the SS Trust Fund Reserve's liquidity beyond 2032 is uncertain, and your projected benefit could end up reduced or delayed
Retirement accounts assumed penalty-free at 59½ unless Advanced Bridge is enabled
Spending stays flat in real (inflation-adjusted) terms after retirement
All figures are modeled estimates, not guarantees or financial advice

1 The Savings Stack

You Today

Your Current Age

Household Filing Status

Household Income & Marginal Tax Bracket

Retirement Accounts (TSP / 401k / IRA)

Current Traditional Balance

Current Roth Balance

Monthly Contribution (Traditional + Roth combined)

Expected Annual Return

Grow contribution with future pay raises Off = contribution stays flat in dollar terms. On = grows each year at your inflation assumption below.

Current Years of Service

Projected Years of Service at Separation

Contributions and any match stop when you separate from the military — if the two YOS numbers are equal, you’re modeled as separating today. If you plan to keep saving into a civilian 401(k) afterward, this tool doesn’t model that separately; consider increasing your Brokerage contribution below as a rough stand-in.

Non-Retirement Savings (funds early retirement, the "Bridge")

Current HYSA / Cash Balance

Current Taxable Brokerage Balance

HYSA Monthly Contribution

Brokerage Monthly Contribution

HYSA Expected Return

Brokerage Expected Return

Planned Retirement Age

59.5 years old

Advanced Bridge — model Rule of 55 / 72(t) early access Off by default. If enabled, penalty-free access to retirement accounts starts at your planned retirement age (if 55+) instead of waiting until 59½.

2 The Real Cost of Living

Current Monthly Household Expenses

Inflation Assumption

Default approximates the ~110-year CPI-U average. Current SSA/CBO forward projections run closer to 2.3–2.6% — edit if you want a more current-relevant estimate.

Planned Retirement Lifestyle

Downsize (–15%)

Maintain

Expand (+25%)

The 70% Rule is then applied on top: retirees typically replace 55–80% of working-years spending once payroll taxes, retirement contributions, commuting, and the "PCS tax" of uniforms and moves disappear.

3 The Income Stack

Military Pension Only about 1 in 6 who serve reach the 20 years needed for a pension — leave this off if that doesn’t apply to you.

VA Disability Compensation Leave this off if you don’t have (or don’t expect) a VA disability rating.

Second Career Pension A flat, non-military pension you expect from a post-service career.

4 Spouse / Partner

Include a spouse or partner in this plan Adds their savings and income to a combined household plan.

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Spouse Current Age

Spouse Traditional Balance

Spouse Roth Balance

Spouse Monthly Contribution

Spouse Expected Return

Spouse Pension / Second Career

A note on planning for two lifetimes

One spouse typically outlives the other — which means it may not be optimal for either of you to plan around fully depleting your household’s retirement savings. This calculator does not model joint-life survival odds; that kind of deliberate, two-life planning is exactly what an Accredited Financial Counselor can help you build.

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5 Tax Treatment

Convert Traditional balances to Roth before retirement Models a Roth Conversion Ladder — each converted amount is taxable in the year of conversion and needs 5 tax years of seasoning before penalty-free withdrawal.

Traditional withdrawals and pension income are taxed as ordinary income at your marginal bracket above; VA disability and Roth withdrawals are never taxed. State income tax is not modeled — most states fully or partially exempt military retirement pay, but your state may differ. A financial counselor or tax professional can tell you exactly how your state treats this income.

7 Make It Your Own

Conservative Target Success Rate

Longevity Horizon (age)

Aggressive: Target Age to Hit $0

Aggressive: Probability of Hitting $0 By That Age

"A 50% chance my portfolio hits zero before age 95, and a 50% chance it doesn’t" — the Die-With-Zero philosophy, with an actual probabilistic bound instead of a guess. If you want to die with zero, set this to 100.

Every probability shown is a modeled estimate from a Monte Carlo simulation over historical market return sequences — not a guarantee or a prediction. Conservative, Standard, and Aggressive differ only in withdrawal amount, not investment allocation, so you can see exactly what one variable costs you in risk.

A note on planning for two lifetimes

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